The Coming War on China 2027 Part 2/5
Making New Friends and Enemies
This is Part 2 of a 5 part series on the coming US war against China. For the other parts:
Diplomatic Aggression
“To be any enemy of America is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”- Henry Kissinger. For the US in its campaign against China this is certainly true. Around the world, the US has sought to isolate China diplomatically while also dragooning more countries to join its little crusade against the East. The effort to isolate China extends into all areas, from blowing up multilateral climate change agreements,[1] to promising alternative infrastructure investment that never turns up,[2] to spreading anti vax lies,[3] to facile accusations of Chinese “human rights abuses”[4], etc. In the developing world the US and its allies are consistently trying to ruin Chinese diplomatic and economic efforts through propaganda psyops in the media,[5] vaporware “BRI alternatives”,[6] and beating with the economic stick of the western creditors[7] when all else fails.
The US-G7 is trying to enlist active allies in its global struggle. On a fundamental level, China’s current strengths lie in trade and development, the US in arms and violence. Both countries are trying to shift the ground of struggle to their area. The supposed moral basis of this great crusade for Western global dictatorship is the cartoonishly facile and hilariously hypocritical framing of “Democracy vs Autocracy”.[8] How is it we hear the greatest yelps for freedom and human rights[9] from the launchers of coups[10] and the slaughterers of children[11]? In the Middle East right now this supposed moral struggle takes the form of backing Israeli genocide and Gulf state sectarianism in the hopes of shifting the region to a pro US war footing instead of a pro-China peace and development. The centerpiece of US policy in west Asia, the Abraham Accords, is designed to lock the Arab countries and their oil supplies into a firm alignment with Washington through intelligence, military, and economic integration with Israel instead of China and the emerging global majority, using the threat of Iran as pretext. The US has successfully demanded that Israel publicly break with China in exchange for support for the Gaza genocide, and all of its Abraham Accords demands to Saudi Arabia are related to China, such as no yuan oil sales or PLA bases in Saudi.[12] In Pakistan the US launches a coup against a democratically elected leader for insufficient fealty to the US proxy war in Ukraine, and then economically ruins the country to turn it into a millstone around China’s neck.[13]
The core US allies it seeks to enlist in its future war on China are its most longtime and obsequious vassals like the European countries, Australia, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and the breakaway administration on Taiwan. Among the EU and UK, the US has endeavored to force them to cut economic ties with China while enhancing their military involvement in the Pacific, using the Russia issue (which will be covered in the next segment) as the bludgeon and carrot.[14] In Australia, the AUKUS alliance has been pushed through to avoid the possibility of fence sitting by Australia, whose economy is heavily dependent on Chinese trade, while the vaporware hyper expensive US nuclear submarines serve as the thin edge of the wedge to deploy large US bases to the country.[15] In South Korea, the US is busy forcing the country to drop its longstanding grievances and worries against Japan over issues like mass war rape and forced labor and instead join a trilateral alliance between the US, Japan, and ROK. The abysmally unpopular current president Yoon Suk Yeol(who is nevertheless a darling of Washington, even going so far as to serenade Joe Biden) has led on this issue and recently launched a military coup to try and lock in his power and the hated kowtowing to Japan. In the post-coup environment, the US has been furiously pressuring Korean politicians to allow Yoon and his party to remain in power as long as possible, to avoid the possibility that a Democratic Party candidate might be elected and reverse Yoon’s hated record.[16] In Japan, the US has strongly partnered with Japanese ultranationalists and empire nostalgics to gut the post World War 2 peace constitution and massively and arguably illegally expand its military while using Japanophile sentiments among the descendants of fascist collaborators on Taiwan.[17] Recolonization of the Philippines also proceeds apace, as the son, Bongbong Marcos, of the previous US backed dictator, rules over the country at the beck and call of the US for fear that the US might seize his family’s corrupt wealth or worst yet even arrest Bongbong.[18] Marcos has been busy provoking China in a marked contrast to the moderate and diplomacy-based approach of the previous president Rodrigo Duterte, whose daughter Sara is currently serving as vice president. A US backed lawfare and media smear campaign is ongoing against the Duterte family in an effort to prevent Sara from taking the presidency in the next elections and ruining the pro US pivot.[19] On Taiwan (which will be covered more comprehensively later), the US is actively supporting pro secessionist forces and arming up the local military in preparation for war.
India is another potential ally but is more of an open question. India has had historically poor relations with China, and so the US was able to entice it to join the anti-China Quad alliance.[20] However, US insistence on India cutting its long and friendly relationship to Russia as well as the failure of promised US investments to appear have caused India to hedge its bets and try to thaw relations with China.[21] The US bloc has retaliated with lawfare against the Indian intelligence service and one of Indian PM Modi’s primary financial backers, the Adani family.[22] All around the world the US is sowing the seeds of war and poverty. Meanwhile, China is working to extend mutually beneficial relations with many countries around the world centered around economic development, and actively helping to construct non-US dominated alternative institutions through organizations like BRICS. Chinese development and investment has shown much fruit, in places as far afield as the new nickel plants of Indonesia, Peru’s first container port. Namibia’s primary port, etc.[23] China also plays a leading role in the emerging BRICS bloc, which is in the process of constructing alternative institutions to the US dominated global system and working to improve development.[24] Thus we see the contrasting global visions, war and destruction vs peace and development.
The Russia Card
“Friendship between the two States (Russia and China) has no limits, there are no ”forbidden“ areas of cooperation, strengthening of bilateral strategic cooperation is neither aimed against third countries nor affected by the changing international environment and circumstantial changes in third countries.” – China-Russia joint statement, 4 February 2022.[25] China and Russia have developed a strong strategic partnership in the 21st century, which is a primary reason for Western aggression against Russia. When the Soviet Union first collapsed, US national security mandarin Zbigniew Berezniki deemed a potential alliance between Russia and China, and possibly Iran, as a profound future threat to the US.[26] In 2000, Vladimir Putin took over the Russian presidency and generally continued a conciliatory pro-Western approach.[27] For this he was rewarded with covert backing of international jihadis in Chechnya and further NATO expansion against Russia, moving missiles and troops closer and closer to Russia to blackmail it.[28]
In 2014, the West struck its biggest blow in Ukraine, overthrowing its democratically elected president in a color revolution on the pretext of preventing an economic deal with Russia. The coup featured neo nazis, false flag sniper attacks, and Victoria “fuck the EU” Nuland handing out cookies and led to a new govt which promptly declared hostility to the Russian Federation, Russian speakers in Ukraine, and a desire for rapid western integration. These actions prompted a civil war in the country and the Russian annexation of Crimea. After years of failed peace talks while the NATOization of Ukraine proceeded apace, Russia launched its “Special Military Operation” in Ukraine in 2022.[29] This war has served as pretext for a massive expansion of US global aggression against not only Russia but also China.
The war first and foremost served as the tool by which the EU was housebroken once and for all, and abandoned any serious considerations of “strategic autonomy” i.e. maintaining economic links to Russia and China while avoiding participation in a war. Sanctions have permanently severed economic links between Russia and the EU, while increased dependence on the US have forced the bloc to submit increasingly to US diktat on the China question, even as European companies desperately grasp for a China lifeline out of their Russia sanctions induced economic morass.[30] In addition, the proxy war in Ukraine has also served to try and bleed Russia economically(stealing central bank reserves and massive sanctions) and militarily(supplying the Ukrainian army with unprecedented levels of assistance to try and defeat Russia) in the hopes of inducing pro-western regime change and possibly balkanization that would turn the country against China.[31]
The China-Russia relationship is the most important friendship China has. Chinese-Russian friendship means both countries can reduce military expenditure that would otherwise have to be diverted to defend their enormous shared frontier. Economically, China has gained a vast new export market in Russia as western firms were forced to withdraw, and a secure source of important raw materials like oil that cannot be blocked by the West. For Russia, Chinese imports and Russian exports to China help their economy shrug off Western sanctions. The two countries are also increasingly coordinating their military and diplomatic efforts in other areas such as the Pacific and the Arctic.[32] The West would like nothing more than to topple the Russian govt and impose a client regime that would not only allow the west to loot the country like in the 1990s but also turn the country away from its strongest ally.
[1] “Doha Climate Gateway: The Reaction.” The Guardian, December 10, 2012. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/dec/10/doha-climate-gateway-reaction?INTCMP=SRCH.
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[2] “Grand Ambitions, Little Money.” Africa Confidential, January 11, 2023. https://www.africa-confidential.com/article-preview/id/14261/grand-ambitions%2c-little-money.
[3] Bing, Christopher, Karen Lema, and Joel Shectman. “US Admitted It Spread Anti-Vax Covid Propaganda in Philippines to Disparage China.” USA Today, July 26, 2024. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2024/07/26/covid-vaccine-us-china-propaganda/74555829007/.
[4] Singh, Ajit, and Max Blumenthal. “China Detaining Millions of Uyghurs? Serious Problems with Claims by US-Backed NGO and Far-Right Researcher ‘led by God’ against Beijing - the Grayzone.” The Grayzone - News and investigative journalism on empire, March 27, 2021. https://thegrayzone.com/2019/12/21/china-detaining-millions-uyghurs-problems-claims-us-ngo-researcher/.
[5] Stanley, Marcus. “House Passes $1.6 Billion to Deliver Anti-China Propaganda Overseas.” MSN, September 11, 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/house-passes-16-billion-to-deliver-anti-china-propaganda-overseas/ar-AA1qp59U.
[6] Lemire, Johnathan, and Karl Mathiesen. “G-7 Unveils $600B Plan to Combat China’s Global Reach.” Politico, June 22, 2022. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/26/g-7-unveils-600b-plan-to-combat-chinas-global-reach-00042452.
[7] “How Bad Is Pakistan’s Debt Crisis and Can the IMF Save It? | Reuters.” Reuters, February 14, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-bad-is-pakistans-debt-crisis-can-imf-save-it-2024-02-14/.
[8] “The Summit for Democracy .” U.S. Department of State. https://www.state.gov/summit-for-democracy/.
[9] Hansler, Jennifer, Zamira Rahim, and Ben Westcott. “US Accuses China of ‘genocide’ of Uyghurs and Minority Groups in Xinjiang.” CNN, January 20, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/19/us/us-xinjiang-china-genocide-intl/index.html.
Lazaroff, Tovah. “Israel Signs Statement against China’s Treatment of Uighurs at UNHRC.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, June 16, 2022. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-709426.
[10] Hussain, Murtaza, and Ryan Grim. “Secret Pakistan Cable Documents U.S. Pressure to Remove Imran Khan.” The Intercept, August 9, 2023. https://theintercept.com/2023/08/09/imran-khan-pakistan-cypher-ukraine-russia/.
Baker, John Carl. “South Korean Protesters Thwarted More than Just a Coup Attempt.” The Nation, December 4, 2024. https://www.thenation.com/article/world/south-korea-yoon-suk-yeol-coup-impeachment-protests/.
[11] “State of Palestine.” International Criminal Court. https://www.icc-cpi.int/palestine.
[12] Lazaroff, Tovah. “Israel Signs Statement against China’s Treatment of Uighurs at UNHRC.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, June 16, 2022. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-709426.
Grossman, Derek. “China Is Burning All Its Bridges with Israel .” RAND, May 16, 2024. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2024/05/china-is-burning-all-its-bridges-with-israel.html.
Zha, Carl. “US Grand Strategy in the Middle East to Contain China-Peter Lee Interview.” YouTube, July 20, 2024.
[13] Hussain, Murtaza, and Ryan Grim. “Secret Pakistan Cable Documents U.S. Pressure to Remove Imran Khan.” The Intercept, August 9, 2023. https://theintercept.com/2023/08/09/imran-khan-pakistan-cypher-ukraine-russia/.
[14] Katanich, Dolores. “European Tariffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles: All You Need to Know.” euronews, October 30, 2024. https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/10/30/european-tariffs-on-chinese-electric-vehicles-all-you-need-to-know.
“German Navy Begins Indo-Pacific Deployment 2024.” Bundeswehr, May 8, 2024. https://www.bundeswehr.de/en/organization/navy/news/german-navy-begins-indo-pacific-deployment-2024-5782518.
[15] “Characteristics of Australian Importers, 2020-21 Financial Year.” Australian Bureau of Statistics, February 21, 2023. https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/international-trade/characteristics-australian-importers/2020-21.
Johnson, Paul. “Keating Describes Taiwan as ‘chinese Real Estate’ as He Hits out at Albanese.” ABC News, August 9, 2024. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-08/paul-keating-aukus-china-albanese-foreign-policy/104201388.
[16] Baker, John Carl. “South Korean Protesters Thwarted More than Just a Coup Attempt.” The Nation, December 4, 2024. https://www.thenation.com/article/world/south-korea-yoon-suk-yeol-coup-impeachment-protests/.
[17] Farley, Robert. “Why Doesn’t Japan Have Its Own Aircraft Carriers?” The National Interest, June 25, 2021. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/why-doesnt-japan-have-its-own-aircraft-carriers-188581.
Wenchan, Chen, and Liu Tzuhsuan. “Abe Statue a Symbol of Japan-Taiwan Friendship.” Taipei Times, January 5, 2023. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/01/06/2003792094.
[18] Palmer, Ewan. “Philippines’ Marcos Jr.. Can Visit U.S without Arrest over $353M Court Order.” Newsweek, June 9, 2022. https://www.newsweek.com/ferdinand-bongbong-marcos-arrest-us-philippines-353m-court-order-1714286.
[19] Tiglao, Rigoberto. “Why Getting Quiboloy Is Critical for the Marcos-Romualdez Clan - Rigoberto Tiglao.” Rigoberto Tiglao , October 29, 2024. https://rigobertotiglao.com/2024/08/30/why-getting-quiboloy-is-critical-for-the-marcos-romualdez-clan/.
[20] Smith, Sheila. “The Quad in the Indo-Pacific: What to Know.” Council on Foreign Relations, May 27, 2021. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/quad-indo-pacific-what-know.
[21] Bhurtel, Bhim. “Why Modi’s Shifting India Away from US toward China.” Asia Times, October 24, 2024. https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/why-modis-shifting-away-from-us-toward-china/.
Shashank , Mattoo. “IG BREAKING: INDIA, CHINA REACH AGREEMENT TO END BORDER CRISIS.” Twitter, October 21, 2024. https://x.com/MattooShashank/status/1848295216266227721.
[22] Nakashima, Ellen, and Greg Miller. “U.S. Charges Former Indian Spy Linked to Murder Plot in New York.” MSN, October 17, 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/u-s-charges-former-indian-spy-linked-to-murder-plot-in-new-york/ar-AA1ssoiY.
“Who Is Gautam Adani, Controversial Indian Tycoon Charged with Bribery in Us? .” Reuters, November 21, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gautam-adani-indicted-us-is-controversial-first-generation-indian-tycoon-2024-11-21/.
[23] “Peru’s Chinese-Built Mega Port to Soft Launch in Late November with Shanghai Route .” Reuters, October 18, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-chinese-built-mega-port-begin-moving-two-container-ships-week-november-2024-10-18/.
Treadgold, Tim. “Indonesia on Track to Dominate the Supply of Nickel to Make Batteries.” Forbes, June 2, 2021. https://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2021/06/02/indonesia-on-track-to-dominate-the-supply-of-nickel-to-make-batteries/.
“Walvis Bay Port Expands Southern Africa’s Logistical Capacity.” constructsteel.org. https://constructsteel.org/projects/walvis-bay-port-expands-southern-africas-logistical-capacity/.
[24] “BRICS Summit: Key Takeaways from the Kazan Declaration .” Reuters, October 24, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/factobox-main-points-brics-declaration-2024-10-23/.
[25] Putin, Vladimir, and Xi Jinping. “Joint Statement of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the International Relations Entering a New Era and the Global Sustainable Development.” President of Russia, February 4, 2022. http://www.en.kremlin.ru/supplement/5770.
[26] Brzezinski, Zbigniew. The Grand Chessboard: American primacy and its geostrategic imperatives. New York: Basic Books, 2016.
[27] McFaul, Michael. “U.S.-Russia Relations after September 11, 2001.” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, October 24, 2001. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2001/10/us-russia-relations-after-september-11-2001?lang=en.
[28] Laughland, John. “The Chechens’ American Friends.” The Guardian, September 8, 2004. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/sep/08/usa.russia.
“The Addition of NATO Members over Time (1949-2024).” ND International Security Center, March 8, 2024. https://ndisc.nd.edu/news-media/news/the-addition-of-nato-members-over-time-1949-2023/.
[29] Katchanovski, Ivan. “The Maidan Massacre in Ukraine.” SpringerLink, 2024. https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-031-67121-0.
[30] Hudson, Michael. “America Defeats Germany for the Third Time in a Century.” Michael Hudson | On finance, real estate and the powers of neoliberalism, March 1, 2022. https://michael-hudson.com/2022/02/america-defeats-germany-for-the-third-time-in-a-century/.
[31] Courtney, William. “Regime Change in Russia? .” RAND Corporation, September 19, 2022. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2022/09/regime-change-in-russia.html.
[32] Fong, Clara, and Will Ferrow. “Where the China-Russia Partnership Is Headed in Seven Charts and Maps.” Council on Foreign Relations, December 12, 2024. https://www.cfr.org/article/where-china-russia-partnership-headed-seven-charts-and-maps.
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”-Hermann Goering.
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