The Coming War on China-2027 Part 1/5
Containment, Lies, and Industry
This is Part 1 of a 5 part series on the coming US war against China. For the other parts:
Introduction
“China is big country, inhabited by many Chinese” – President of France Charles de Gaulle
“We only have to kick in the door and the whole rotting edifice will come tumbling down”- Adolf Hitler on launching the invasion of the USSR
The United States of America plans to launch a war against the People’s Republic of China. This is a fact upon which all major US foreign and domestic policies of any real consequence in the past at least 10 years with the Obama era “Pivot to Asia”, if not even earlier, have revolved. Ever since the end of the Cold War and the collapse of the USSR, the United States has operated under what has been dubbed the “Wolfowitz Doctrine”, named for the neoconservative Republican Bush Pentagon apparatchik, whose core ultimately is: “Our first objective is to prevent the re-emergence of a new rival.”[1] In service of this goal of maintaining the U.S.’s global hegemony/dictatorship, it is preparing to start a war with China, the rising global power most able to challenge U.S. diktat. It is not even necessary for a country to actually threaten the US, that can be seen with Putin’s unsuccessful attempts to play nice with Washington. So long as a country does not completely surrender itself to the Yankees, the US will always plot to destroy it. For the purposes of this, the US must start a war, in stark contrast to its “containment” policy in the original Cold War. The Soviet Union was severely battered by the Great Patriotic War, and the while the Yalta-Potsdam settlement did acknowledge Soviet superpower status and a Soviet led sphere of influence, it also fundamentally trapped the Soviet Union in its corner of the world, from which it was never able to fully break out which left most of the rest of the world to US control. The Soviet Union also was far more economically feeble, and while its economy produced fairly stable growth for much of its existence it could not match much less surpass the US. The Soviet position of weakness allowed the US to slowly choke it off while also bankrolling efforts to rollback the core Soviet sphere without triggering war.
The Chinese economy is already of greater size than the US, and Chinese global influence reaches into far more countries than the USSR thanks to this enormous economic might. In general, the US economy and global influence is in relative decline to those of China. The United States therefore cannot hope to simply “contain” China, it must actively seek to destroy it using the one instrument where it still has fairly indisputable superiority to China, armed force. The US elite has always been extremely violent and often highly irrational, inflicting multiple genocidal wars upon the world and nearly destroying the planet multiple times. For the US elite, a conflict with China is also a boon for their narrow interests. Conflict means trillions in spending for military contracts and a smorgasbord of other interests on “national security” grounds, with the appropriate kickbacks to govt officials. They also think that the war can unify a fractious and polarized country, and provide a pretext for further repression and consolidation of elite control. This is a bipartisan obsession, with leading officials of both parties constantly fearmongering and saber rattling against China, from Obama and Biden to Trump, and their warhawk apparatchiks like Kurt Campbell or Elbridge Colby. To prepare the groundwork for this, the United States has been and is currently engaging in a full spectrum campaign of aggression across all domains short of direct military conflict to try and weaken China, in preparation of the launch of the war to try and secure the Endsieg of U.S. hegemony in this century. In the subsequent paragraphs, I will lay out the broad contours of the US campaign and its eventual terminal goal, a direct war between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China, a war which will almost certainly be deemed to be the Third World War.
Preparing the Home Front
“Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”-Hermann Goering. To prosecute a war successfully in the modern era of mass politics and mass media, the groundwork has to be laid with public opinion and discourse, to manufacture consent for the enterprise. To this end the US govt and Western media (there is no functional distinction between the two on core issues like this)[2] are engaged in a massive campaign of propaganda against all things Chinese as well as toughening repressive apparatuses. An avalanche of negative articles on China has endlessly poured forth from the pliant stenographers in the Western press, supported by billions in Western propaganda money. One only need to make a cursory internet search to find news accusing China of flooding the west with drugs[3], brainwashing children[4], bullying smaller countries[5], stealing people’s organs[6], committing genocide[7], and threatening the west with garlic[8] and a plethora of other imagined offenses. US politicians have been only too happy to join into the China bashing, with the US Congress establishing the “Select Committee of the CCP”[9] a bipartisan collection of whiny warhawk prima donnas prancing before the cameras condemning everything from Tik Tok to electric vehicles. Much of the “sourcing” for these vile lies, other than govt officials directly, is from Western think tanks and other NGOs, a collection of overinflated pseudo-intellectuals and warmongers in the pay of a variety of govts and war profiteers.[10] The US security apparatus has also engaged in a China related racist witch hunt, prosecuting many Chinese Americans and Chinese students for supposed improprieties.[11] Western govts have also substantially increased repressive apparatuses and laws in the past few years. All of this has served to invent reality in the minds of the public to view China as a threat, which justifies radical action to excise. More repression, more demonization, and comprehensive efforts to destroy potential alternative political paths is the result. Similar identical campaigns have been rolled out in other Western countries.[12] China has also begun preparing its public for possible conflict, with media covering western failings and aggression while warning the public about potential internal dangers.
Economic Aggression
“An army marches on its stomach”-Napoleon Bonaparte. The basis of war is economic, and shiny toys like stealth fighters and supercarriers aren’t exactly cheap or easy to make. The US has a habit of brutally beating down potential economic competitors, regardless of whether they are friend or foe. Japan in the 1980s and 1990s[13], and the European Union in the 2020s[14], have both suffered catastrophic economic damage from policies imposed by the US, and these are supposed to be their allies! The basic plan has been to “decouple” from the highly lucrative Chinese market to try and damage China while insulating the West at least a little from the economic catastrophe that would happen if the China trade were cut suddenly. The first major shot against China was supposed to be the Trans Pacific Partnership trade deal, designed to dragoon much of Asia into a US aligned economic bloc, but that plan ultimately fell through. The campaign against China has been more radical. The US is currently engaged in a widespread effort to inhibit Chinese economic and technological development through all means fair and foul. The economic sabotage campaign has three basic components: flatlining Chinese exports, destroying Chinese technological development, and hobbling foreign investment in China.
The original pretext for this massive economic war was China’s Made in China 2025 plan, a rather reasonable World Bank approved plan by China to avoid the middle-income trap.[15] To mess with Chinese exports, everything from Chinese steel[16], infrastructure projects[17], air fryers[18], cars[19], routers[20] and a million other things are currently subjected to a mix of fearmongering denunciations, tariff barriers, and direct sanctions. The centerpiece of the US sanctions campaign against China is in high technology sectors, especially advanced electronic industries like semiconductors, AI development, social media platforms, etc. To this end the US has attempted to destroy multiple major Chinese tech companies and development sectors. Attacks on Chinese technology colossus Huawei ranged from chip import restrictions to pressuring govts around the world to ban them from telecom systems to arresting the daughter of the company founder on specious grounds under claimed “universal jurisdiction”. Bans against Huawei equipment were also motivated by the fact that such equipment would have no NSA backdoors, which was also the reasoning for pressuring global communications to be routed away from Hong Kong.[21] The US has also tried to severely damage Chinese semiconductor development through prohibiting technology transfers, prosecuting industry employees who help Chinese firms, and engaging in general lawfare against the industry.[22] For AI the US has conducted a gradually escalating series of prohibitions on export of high-end chips used in the sector as well as other measures designed to hobble the industry.[23] The US elite explicitly views AI as the primary instrument of US global dominance for the next century, as well as being something that will make them personally rich and powerful beyond their wildest dreams. Chinese development of high-end internet companies like Tik Tok is also not to be tolerated, regardless of previous US bleating about “internet freedom”.[24] The green transition and trying to limit climate change has also been sacrificed on the altar of trying to ruin China. China is the world’s leading producer of the overwhelming majority of green technology, from new energy vehicles to solar panels and wind turbines.[25] How does the US respond? By sanctions and tariffs and doubling down on fossil fuels.[26] If the US faces a choice between saving the planet and letting China gain an edge, they rather burn it all down. The US “reshoring” or “friendshoring” campaign is also a whole of govt effort to force private industry to cease investing in China, the world’s largest market and still one of the faster growing ones.[27] From media fearmongering about China to strong direct govt pressure no effort is being spared to try and make China an uninvestable environment. China has responded to these efforts by redoubling its economic efforts in all sectors.
The western anti-Chinese export drive has mostly fallen flat on its face, as Chinese exports even to those countries generally continue to rise, while Chinese drives to find markets in the developing world have met with some success.[28] China is also working to stimulate domestic consumption through economic stimulus measures including subsidies for consumer technology purchases of made in China tech. Chinese technological development also continues to advance, with Chinese companies filing for patents in crucial parts of AI development and the semiconductor production chain, while also successfully mass-producing high technology products despite western restrictions.[29] The recently unveiled AI models like Deepseek have shown Chinese development remains on track, and is in fact superior to US development as it attains similar results using far less chips and money. China has also continued to successfully attract foreign investment into many economic sectors, with a variety of titans of western capital like Elon Musk expressing continued confidence and commitment to the Chinese market.[30] China so far has mostly avoided meaningful economic retaliation against the US besides tit for tat tariff increases and a few symbolic sanctions,[31] but this may be beginning to change, as within the last month China announced severe export restrictions against the US of rare metals crucial to modern electronics production and an antitrust probe into major western chip company Nvidia.[32] The economic campaign against China has had limited to no long term effects on Chinese growth and development.
[1] “Excerpts from 1992 Draft ‘defense Planning Guidance’ | The War Behind Closed Doors | Frontline.” PBS. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/iraq/etc/wolf.html.
[2] Stanley, Marcus. “House Passes $1.6 Billion to Deliver Anti-China Propaganda Overseas.” MSN, September 11, 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/house-passes-16-billion-to-deliver-anti-china-propaganda-overseas/ar-AA1qp59U.
[3] Krishnamoorthi, Raja. “What China Must Do to Stop the Flow of Fentanyl.” Foreign Affairs, December 13, 2024. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/what-china-must-do-stop-flow-fentanyl.
[4] Metzner, Ben. “Mitt Romney Reveals Twisted Reason Why Congress Moved to Ban TikTok.” MSN. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mitt-romney-reveals-twisted-reason-why-congress-moved-to-ban-tiktok/ar-BB1lUzZi.
[5] Patrick, Igor. “Paraguay Expels Chinese Diplomat for Urging Lawmakers to Sever Ties to Taiwan.” South China Morning Post, December 6, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3289790/paraguay-expels-chinese-diplomat-urging-lawmakers-sever-ties-taiwan.
[6] Nazeer, Tasnim. “First Known Survivor of China’s Forced Organ Harvesting Speaks Out .” – The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/first-known-survivor-of-chinas-forced-organ-harvesting-speaks-out/.
[7] “Adrian Zenz, Ph.D..” Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, February 21, 2024. https://victimsofcommunism.org/leader/adrian-zenz-phd/.
[8] Zhao, E. (2024, December 13). China pushes back as U.S. senator Rick Scott condemns “sewage garlic” imports. Business Times. https://www.btimesonline.com/articles/171609/20241213/china-pushes-back-as-u-s-senator-condemns-sewage-garlic-imports.htm
[9] Select Committee on the strategic competition between ... U.S. Congress. (n.d.). https://www.congress.gov/committee/house-select-committee-on-the-strategic-competition-between-the-united-states-and-the-chinese-communist-party/hlzs00
[10] “Home.” Think Tank Funding Tracker, Quincy Institute, 18 Dec. 2024, thinktankfundingtracker.org/.
[11] Kranz, Michal. “The Director of the FBI Says the Whole of Chinese Society Is a Threat to the US - and That Americans Must Step up to Defend Themselves.” Business Insider. https://www.businessinsider.com/china-threat-to-america-fbi-director-warns-2018-2.
[12] Bertrand, Arnaud. “The Case of Prince Andrew and the ‘Chinese Spy.’” Twitter, December 16, 2024. https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1868873202799362089.
[13] Norton, Ben, and Max Blumenthal. “Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire with Economist Michael Hudson - the Grayzone.” The Grayzone - News and investigative journalism on empire, October 19, 2021. https://thegrayzone.com/2021/10/19/super-imperialism-economist-michael-hudson/.
[14] Hersh, Seymour. “How America Took out the Nord Stream Pipeline.” How America Took Out The Nord Stream Pipeline, February 8, 2023. https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream.
[15] Chan, Kylie. “‘Made in China 2025’ Was a Massive Foreign Relations Disaster for China. .” Twitter, May 14, 2024. https://x.com/kyleichan/status/1790486505133064377.
[16] “Chinese Overcapacity Is Crushing the Global Steel Industry.” The Economist, September 17, 2024. https://www.economist.com/business/2024/09/17/chinese-overcapacity-is-crushing-the-global-steel-industry.
[17] “Nepal Rejects BRI Loans over Debt Concerns and High Interest Rates - International: Daily Mirror.” International | Daily Mirror, December 6, 2024. https://www.dailymirror.lk/international/Nepal-rejects-BRI-loans-over-debt-concerns-and-high-interest-rates/107-297536.
[18] “Is Your Air Fryer Spying on You? How Household Gadgets Are Collect Data.” The Sun, December 15, 2024. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/32312788/air-fryer-spying-household-gadgets-data/.
[19] Domonoske, Camila. “5 Takeaways from Biden’s Tariff Hikes on Chinese Electric Vehicles.” NPR, May 14, 2024. https://www.npr.org/2024/05/14/1251096758/biden-china-tariffs-ev-electric-vehicles-5-things.
[20] “Beijing Accuses US of ‘politicising’ Trade after Targeting Huawei Again.” MSN, December 13, 2024. https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/beijing-accuses-us-of-politicising-trade-after-targeting-huawei-again/ar-AA1vNvCG.
[21] Kirton, David. “Huawei Launches Mate 70 Smartphone as New US Chip Curbs Loom | Reuters.” Reuters, November 26, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/huawei-launches-mate-70-smartphone-2024-11-26/.
“Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou Flies Back to China after Deal with US.” BBC News, September 25, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-58682998.
Friedman, Alan. “U.S. Is about to Tighten the Screws on Huawei Again.” PhoneArena, December 12, 2024. https://www.phonearena.com/news/u.s.-about-to-turn-the-screws-on-huawei-again_id165771.
[22] Lee, Peter. Open to all: The China Semicon Blockade bombshell | Peter Lee’s China Threat Report on patreon, October 14, 2022. https://www.patreon.com/posts/open-to-all-73321945.
[23] Chang, Wayne, and Rosa de Acosta. “What Is High Bandwidth Memory and Why Is the US Trying to Block China’s Access to It?” CNN, December 8, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/08/tech/us-china-hbm-chips-hnk-intl/index.html.
[24] “Tiktok Asks Federal Appeals Court to Bar Enforcement of Potential Ban until Supreme Court Review.” WESH, December 10, 2024. https://www.wesh.com/article/tiktok-asks-federal-appeals-court-to-bar-enforcement-of-potential-ban/63147537.
[25] Yang, Zeyi. “These Chinese Companies Prove Green Tech Can Be Profitable.” MIT Technology Review, October 10, 2023. https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/11/1081419/climate-tech-company-byd-gem/.
[26] “US Finalizes Tariff Hikes on More China Green Tech Imports.” Barron’s, December 11, 2024. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-finalizes-tariff-hikes-on-more-china-green-tech-imports-775b886e.
Demarais, Agatha. “In Just Seven Years US Has Become World’s Largest Producer of Crude Oil.” Twitter, December 11, 2024. https://x.com/agathedemarais/status/1866845535899906553.
[27] Biden, Joe. “The Build Back Better Framework.” The White House, December 3, 2021. https://www.whitehouse.gov/build-back-better/.
“Is ‘friendshoring’ Really Working?” Atlantic Council, October 4, 2023. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-friendshoring-really-working/.
[28] “China’s Total Goods Imports and Exports Expanded 4.9 Percent .” Twitter, December 9, 2024. https://x.com/XHNews/status/1866339303581954247.
[29] Shenshen, Zhu. “China Includes Smartphones in Consumer Electronics Subsidies.” SHINE, January 21, 2025. https://www.shine.cn/biz/economy/2501213998/.
Farrell, Nick. “China Overtakes Us as a Research Leader.” Fudzilla, December 3, 2024. https://www.fudzilla.com/news/60180-china-overtakes-us-as-a-research-leader.
“Exclusive: Huawei Aims to Mass-Produce Newest AI Chip in Early 2025, despite US Curbs .” Reuters, November 21, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/huawei-aims-mass-produce-newest-ai-chip-early-2025-despite-us-curbs-2024-11-21/.
[30] Wu, Jasmine, and Deidra Bosa. “How China’s New AI Model DeepSeek Is Threatening U.S. Dominance.” CNBC, January 24, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/24/how-chinas-new-ai-model-deepseek-is-threatening-us-dominance.html.
He, Laura. “Elon Musk Says His Shanghai Factory Makes the ‘highest Quality’ Teslas.” CNN, June 2, 2023. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/02/tech/elon-musk-tesla-leaves-china-intl-hnk/index.html.
[31] “A Quick Guide to the US-China Trade War.” BBC News, January 16, 2020. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310.
[32] Mo, Liam, and Brenda Goh. “China Targets Nvidia with Antitrust Probe, Escalating US Chip Tensions.” USA Today, December 9, 2024. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/12/09/nvidia-china-antitrust-law/76862898007/.
“China Has Banned Exports of Some Rare Minerals to the United States.” IER, December 12, 2024. https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/china-has-banned-exports-of-some-rare-minerals-to-the-united-states/.
I am Filipina but I love china and Hongkong/Chinese nationals
This US citizen concurs that US foreign policy is predicated on global war and war with China.
I on the other hand have absolutely no intention of participating in or otherwise supporting that profligate intention.