Middle East Endsieg: War on China Emergency Report 1/2
Wars on "Terror" and their Culmination
This is Part 1 of a 2 part series of the Iran War, Part 2 can be found here:
Author’s note: This article was completed on 17 June 2025, and some of the writing within may have been overtaken by events by the time you read it.
This is a continuation of War on China’s previous in-depth Middle East coverage. The earlier pieces are available here:
On 13 June 2025, Israel, with the support of the United States and the other western countries, launched an illegal and unprovoked attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is a further drastic escalation of the post 7 October regional crisis, and Israel have been trading blows at a continuing pace since the initial Israeli aggression with no end in sight. A state of war now exists between Iran and Israel, which will have major repercussions throughout the region and the wider world. This war is the culmination of decades of Western plotting to secure the region under their domination and to exclude China’s influence.
The Road to 13 June
The US has spent much of its foreign policy efforts for the past few decades on the Greater Middle East. These efforts are covered in greater depth in earlier pieces on this substack, but suffice it to say the orientation of the US in this region has been aimed at securing US dominance over regional govts and the oil supply, in a bid to deny them to China. To accomplish this, the US has engendered a paradigm of war and hostility in the region, as it is no longer able to offer particularly attractive economic prospects. Proxy wars, direct invasions, and pro Western military alliances have been the US’s calling cards. By contrast, China’s approach to the region has been built on peace and development, brokering win-win agreements between former foes and investing in common prosperity. Western plotting for this region was substantially disrupted by the 7 October attacks by Hamas, which upset the anti-Iran anti-China effort that was the Abraham Accords by once again placing the Palestine issue at the center of regional affairs. Since then, hostility and open fighting has occurred between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel and its Western backers. Israel has found some success in it’s war on the region, managing to severely damage Hezbollah in Lebanon, helping overthrow the Iran and Russia aligned govt in Syria in favor of a pro-Israeli Turkish satellite state. However, the Western bloc has also suffered setbacks in other areas, with the Red Sea still blockaded to Israeli shipping by Yemen’s Ansarallah (Houthi) govt, and a deepening rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states as they scrambled for cover from a potential war.1
The Nuclear Question
For years now, Iran and the US have been engaged in a major standoff, ostensibly over the issue of the Iranian nuclear program. Iran has maintained a civilian nuclear program for decades now, beginning with reactor construction under the Shah prior to the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has pursued a more advanced and comprehensive civilian nuclear program, seeking to domesticize the entire program including enrichment. Throughout this, Iran has not sought a nuclear weapons program, with its religious leaders declaring nuclear weapons to be forbidden under Islamic law. Western intelligence agencies have over the years repeatedly confirmed that this directive is taken seriously, and that Iran is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Despite this, the Western powers have consistently trumpeted a supposed nefarious military purpose, and have used the nuclear issue as a pretext to put enormous pressure on Iran. The actual objective of the Western pressure has been to ruin Iran and hopefully lead to the installation of a pro Western satellite govt in the country. Iranian independence and regional influence is not to be tolerated, so decades of sanctions were enacted. During the Obama administration, Iran and the US reached the JCPOA, which placed the Iranian nuclear program under the most severe international inspections regime of any nuclear program in history, in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. The inspection program allowed Western spies to run rampant over much of Iran. Subsequently, the first Trump administration unilaterally reneged on the deal and reimposed sanctions on Iran, and later on assassinated Iranian military leader Qasem Soleimani after luring him to Iraq with a false negotiation proposal. Joe Biden ran on returning to the Iran deal during the election, but refused to return to the deal once in office and then fully backed Israel’s campaign of regional aggression and genocide after 7 October 2023. Throughout this, Iran continued adhere to much of the deal and allowed international inspectors at its nuclear facilities, but gradually increased its enrichment levels above those permitted by the deal.2
The False Olive Branch
Since Trump’s second inauguration, the Trump administration has continued hostility towards Iran and its allies. The Trump administration attempted to break the Yemeni blockade in the Red Sea with a massive bombing campaign against the country with no success, and the US then beat a hasty retreat after agreeing to mutual cessation of US-Yemen hostilities while leaving Yemeni anti-Israel efforts in place. With Iran, the Trump administration engaged in long and rather fruitless negotiations. Initial openess to a monitored Iranian nuclear program was soon replaced by a hardline demand of no Iranian enrichment capability. Iran publicly stated that it would not give up their enrichment program, but did offer concessions to the US in other areas like allowing US nationals to join inspection teams. On 12 June, the Western countries jammed through an IAEA vote accusing Iran of violating international standards on its nuclear program. Negotiations were still ongoing when Israel launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on 13 June.3
The Israeli attack involved both attacks by Israeli aircraft and infiltrators on the ground, and struck at a variety of targets including Iranian military bases, nuclear facilities, and high level Iranian officials and scientists. In the process, Israel showed a profound disregard of civilian life, killing dozens of innocent civilians in order to try and target a few individuals. The attack was conducted with the full support and material assistance of the US, who did everything except drop the bombs themselves. US intelligence support, diplomatic perfidy, in-air refueling and more was all provided to aid Israeli aggression. The attack did prove to be fairly successful, killing several high level Iranian personnel and seriously damaging various Iranian facilities. However, the attack did not even come close to disabling the Iranian nuclear program, the stated rationale for the attack, and did not destroy Iran’s military or political capabilities and cohesion. The attack’s unprovoked nature also engendered widespread condemnation from the international community. The Western perfidy has also substantially discredited those in favor of diplomacy with the West in Iran, and discredited Western diplomacy generally.4
Iran Strikes Back
The unprovoked aggression by Israel initially caught the Iranian leadership off guard, and they scrambled to put together a response. Over the hours immediately after the attack though, Iran’s leadership and society consolidated around a consensus of serious retaliation against Israel’s attack, and then enacted that decision. Iran struck back with drones and missiles against a variety of Israeli targets. After initial Iranian retaliation, Israel further escalated its attacks on Iran to civilian and economic targets such as oil facilities and water systems, in addition to further attacks on Iranian military facilities and assassination attempts against Iranian officials. Iran then retaliated with further attacks on Israeli military facilities and commenced strikes on Israeli economic targets like power plants and oil plants. Hundreds of Iranians have been killed by the increasingly indiscriminate Israeli attacks, including bombing of medical facilities and personnel, while Iran’s attacks remain targeted against clear legitimate objectives and only a few dozen Israelis have been killed. Israel’s defenses have shown decreasing effectiveness over the course of the conflict, while Iran managed to reboot its defenses from its initial setbacks and has shown a greater degree of success with them than during the original attack.5
As the conflict has escalated, many countries have called upon their nationals to leave both Israel and Iran as soon as possible, traveling over land since both countries have closed their airspace to civilian traffic. Throughout this fight, Israel benefited from enormous support from the US and its satellites, with those both with in the region like Jordan and outside the region like the UK providing aid. These countries led by the US provided Israel with air cover to shoot down incoming Iranian drones, intelligence support to identify targets, in-flight refueling to support aerial operations, surface to air missiles to shoot down Iranian drones and missiles, etc. Israel however was not content with this and constantly whinged for more support and direct intervention on its behalf. Western forces are hastily speeding towards the region in preparation for a possible attack on Iran. Iran has not benefited from the kind of open support that Israel has, however there are reports that cargo flights from Russia and China have landed in Iran since the attack despite Iranian airspace being cleared for the most part.6
Drollette, Dan. “A Brief Look Back at What Led to Israel’s Attack on Iran, from the Bulletin’s Archives.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 13, 2025. https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/a-brief-look-back-at-what-led-to-israels-attack-on-iran-from-the-bulletins-archives/#post-heading.
Blumenthal, Max. “Iraqi Pm Reveals Soleimani Was on Peace Mission When Assassinated, Exploding Trump’s Lie of ‘imminent Attacks’ - the Grayzone.” The Grayzone - News and investigative journalism on empire, January 13, 2020. https://thegrayzone.com/2020/01/06/soleimani-peace-mission-assassinated-trump-lie-imminent-attacks/.
Ravid, Barak. “U.S. Will Stop Bombing Yemen after Houthis ‘Capitulated,’ Trump Says.” Axios, May 6, 2025. https://www.axios.com/2025/05/06/houthi-ceasefire-trump-yemen-attacks.
“Iran to Present Counterproposal for Nuclear Deal to US via Oman.” Al Jazeera, June 9, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/9/iran-to-present-nuclear-counter-proposal-to-us-via-mediator-oman.
“Un Nuclear Watchdog Board Finds Iran in Breach of Non-Proliferation Duties.” Al Jazeera, June 12, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/12/un-nuclear-watchdog-says-iran-non-compliant-of-nuclear-safeguards.
Inskeep, Steve, and Destinee Adams. “Why Did Israel Strike Iran? An Israeli Politician and a U.S.-Iran Expert Weigh In.” NPR, June 13, 2025. https://www.npr.org/2025/06/13/nx-s1-5432480/israel-iran-war-trump.
Diaz-Maurin, François. “Israel Is Now at War with Iran. Seeks Regime Change.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 16, 2025. https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/israel-is-now-at-war-with-iran-seeks-regime-change/#post-heading.
“Chinese FM Wang Yi Holds Phone Conversation with Iranian FM, Says Israel’s Attack on Nuclear Facilities ‘Sets Dangerous Precedent.’” Global Times, June 14, 2025. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202506/1336131.shtml.
Diaz-Maurin, François. “Israel Is Now at War with Iran. Seeks Regime Change.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 16, 2025. https://thebulletin.org/2025/06/israel-is-now-at-war-with-iran-seeks-regime-change/#post-heading.
Griffin, Jennifer. “CONFIRMED: The USS Nimitz Aircraft Carrier Strike Group Is on Its Way to the Middle East from the South China Sea...” Twitter, June 16, 2025. https://x.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1934616363194089879.
Soylu, Ragip. “NEW: Israel Officially Requests the US Join Ongoing Campaign against Iran — Jerusalem Post.” Twitter, June 14, 2025. https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1933969274508394622.
Richard. “A Chinese Cargo Plane Lands in Iran at 11:27 GMT...” Twitter, June 16, 2025. https://x.com/ricwe123/status/1934576694897053926?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg.