What's a Little Mass Murder Between Friends: the US, China, and the Future of the Middle East Part 2/2
Genocide is a Small Price to Pay to Stop the Chinese Dragon
This is Part 2 of a 2 part series on the Middle East Crisis post 7 October attack. For Part 1:
An End to Jake Sullivan’s “Quiet”
On 7 October 2023, Hamas led other Palestinian resistance factions in Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, killing many Israeli soldiers and capturing hundreds of prisoners of war. The operation, which Hamas had been planning alone with no outside input for some time, had a very simple political logic. By October 2023, the Palestinian cause was virtually abandoned and completely out of the global eye. The US led Abraham Accords threatened to sever even the last on paper bonds of Arab govt solidarity with Palestine, and doom the Palestinians to be a forgotten and defeated people to be enslaved and tortured by Israel forever. By disrupting the status quo, Hamas could stop the Abraham Accords, and put Palestine back on the global agenda. In this, they succeeded. The attack put an immediate halt to any further Arab-Israeli normalization for the time being and once again put the Palestine issue not only at the center of Middle East affairs but of the global agenda. Abraham Accords talks with Saudi Arabia, which had been proceeding with the assumption of Saudi satisfaction with a minor cosmetic concession or two to the Palestinians, were suddenly upended as the global reemergence of the Palestine issue forced Saudi to add “meaningful irreversible steps” towards a two-state solution as a deal condition.[1] Thus the main US play in the region, the so called Abraham Accords, ultimately centered around locking the Gulf into a pro-US anti-China alignment, was scuttled unceremoniously by the actions of of Palestinian freedom fighters. The Saudi-Iran rapprochement also deepened further, as Saudi was desperate to avoid being dragged into a war with Iran, with unprecedented steps towards improving relations such as joint military exercises being conducted between the two countries, while Saudi maintained strict neutrality in the unfolding conflict and continued peace talks towards the Houthi movement in Yemen.[2] Iran and its Axis of Resistance became heroes to much of the Arab masses as they stood up to Israeli aggression while the US’s client Arab autocrats did nothing. All this proved to be rage inducing for the governing elite in Washington, who were apoplectic that the uppity Palestinians had upset their anti-China and anti-Iran apple cart.
“Bear Hug” for Genocide
The US response was not long in coming. Within a few days after the attack, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, himself a strident Zionist Jew (a fact he personally emphasized on his visit) with family connections to Israeli intelligence, flew to Israel to announce full and unwavering support for Israel.[3] Jewish Israeli society on all levels and the Israeli govt had already unanimously decided to enact a genocidal response. What ensued was a campaign of mass indiscriminate extermination in Gaza through nearly all the methods at Israel’s disposal, by bullet, bombing, hunger, disease, etc.[4] Israel’s genocidal campaign resulted in substantial opposition in the region and around the world, with diplomatic condemnations, international court suits and injunctions, and even armed intervention by elements of the Iran-aligned Axis of Resistance, in particular Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Israel’s Final Solution to the Palestinian Question was enthusiastically endorsed by the entire US govt, because Never Again would Palestinians be allowed to impede the interests of Washington and its 51st State. Once the Palestinians were all forced out or dead, the US could get its own plans, which were so rudely interrupted by this ghetto uprising Hamas had the temerity to launch, back on track. US backing took the form of all effort possible short of direct public involvement of ground troops in combat in Gaza. Thousands of US soldiers and billions of dollars of equipment was moved around the region to defend Israel from intervention to stop the genocide and provide direct support to Israeli forces and defend the country from attack, billions in military equipment and supplies were supplied to Israel, US diplomats threatened and cajoled anyone who might oppose Israel, and media assets were deployed to spin a web of lies to justify and cover for Israel’s crimes while demonizing anyone who spoke out against it. The US also strongly pressured its Arab satellites like Egypt and Jordan to assist Israeli ethnic cleansing efforts by hosting accepting those expelled by Israel, initiatives refused by the Arab govts as to do so would be to court political suicide as their govts would lose all popular legitimacy while also taking in a large and angry refugee population.[5] However, this full US backing was not free, the US did have conditions for Israel. Other than the kayfabe requests made for legal purposes to “limit” Israeli atrocities or “allow” aid that were forgotten or rolled back almost as soon as they were made, Israel was asked to make actual concessions on its relations with China, specifically to purposely worsen them. Israel soon began voting with the US on condemning supposed “human rights violations” in Xinjiang, reducing China’s Haifa port concession, cutting business with China, and closing future military technology transfers to China.[6] China for its part also became involved in the regional crisis that resulted from Israel’s genocide. China supported diplomacy for a ceasefire and conclusion of a two-state solution, deepened ties to Arab countries, endorsed the Palestinian right to armed resistance, supported Iran’s right to defend itself, condemned Israeli atrocities, and mediated conferences between Palestinian political factions in Beijing.[7] The US has also accused China of supporting the Yemeni anti-Israel blockade, an accusation for which they have provided no real evidence other than the fact that Chinese ships do not stop in Israel and therefore can transit the Red Sea unmolested.[8]
Clean Break Triumphant?
The US plan actually seems to have at least somewhat worked though, at least at present. Most of the Iranian led Axis of Resistance, with the exception of the Houthi movement in Yemen, proved either unwilling or unable to impose serious pain on Israel or the US. This resulted in an emboldened US-Israeli campaign that resulted in the assassinations of key Axis leaders like Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrallah, and massive bombing of Lebanon where Hezbollah was doing the most to try and support the Palestinian struggle. This ultimately led to Hezbollah backing away from its initial position of tying its actions to what was happening in Gaza, and pursue a separate Lebanon-only ceasefire (which Israel is also consistently violated) as its domestic political position continues to decay, though the recent funeral of its martyred leader Hassan Nasrallah gave it a shot in the arm as nearly 40% of the entire population of Lebanon was in attendance.[9] The Lebanon ceasefire then allowed the US-Israeli-Turkish backed rebranded Al Qaeda rebels to finally topple the Iran-aligned Syrian govt, already severely weakened by more than a decade of war and draconian sanctions, and close the Hezbollah’s supply line which was politically unfeasible during the active period of Israel-Hezbollah war as that would have openly exposed the rebels as servants of Zionism.[10] Since then, the new pro-western and effectively Turkish controlled govt has done nothing to resist as Israel committed one act of unprovoked aggression after another, and in fact has openly voiced its willingness to submit to Israeli demands.[11] Israel has destroyed from the air what was left of Syrian industry and the Syrian military’s advanced equipment such as SAM systems and naval warships, while also invading into Syria and is already preparing to annex the lands it just seized.[12] US aligned powers are also salivating at the opportunity to finally run their planned Qatar-Europe natural gas pipeline through Syria to try and substitute for Russian gas in Europe, and to loot the country as the economy is privatized and the society undergoes shock therapy through changes like the withdrawal of fuel subsidies.[13] The rebranded Al Qaeda forces now controlling Syria are also in partnership with Uyghur terror groups sanctioned by the UN, and relations with China are expected to be poor as a result.[14] Despite the new Syrian govts total kowtowing to Israel, Israel has still attacked it violently and sanctions relief has not materialized. The new Syrian administration has not defended itself against Israeli attacks, instead opting for a campaign of massacres against the domestic Alawite minority. US-Israeli forces have also escalated violence against the Houthi movement in Yemen and increasing support for anti-Houthi forces in the country.[15] Iran itself is also convulsed by serious problems as reformist president Pezeshkian and the Iranian leadership has failed to adequately respond to these major blows to Iranian regional influence as well as serious economic woes within the country, instead seeming to pin their hopes on the delusional idea of resuming the Iran nuclear deal even as the US president who initially ripped up the deal is about to take office again, though recent developments with Zelensky in Washington have somewhat discredited the idea of reaching an agreement with the US.[16] Iran is also at least somewhat looking at options to protect itself though, as the Iranian foreign minister was in Beijing for consultations with the Chinese leadership, Iran has concluded a major strategic partnership with Russia, and the IRGC has staged major military exercises.[17] The US is already preparing for the attainment of its final Middle East goal, a dream deferred after the Iraq invasion turned into a mess, invasion and regime change in Iran. The outgoing Biden administration was already openly considering striking Iranian nuclear sites under the pretext that Iran is getting close to building a nuclear bomb, and the Trump administration is already mulling such an option.[18] Proposed talks between Iran and the US are unlikely to succeed given the far reaching and radical nature of US demands against the country.
Some Pesky Resistance
However, it is not all rosy for the US and Israel at this point. Yemen’s Houthi movement has already survived more than a decade of genocidal Saudi western backed war against it, and all western efforts to break the blockade and defeat the Houthis have continued to fail. Iran will be a far tougher nut to crack militarily than any other foe the US has fought in the past 50 years, with a massive missile arsenal, tough terrain, a large population, important international friends, and a strategic location that allows it to choke off half the world’s oil.[19] Iran’s nuclear program has also significantly advanced with the constraints of the JCPOA no longer in force, though it is still not trying to build a bomb.[20] Iran’s deepening relations with other non-Western powers like Russia and China also provide it a degree of protection, and the 3 powers are engaging in a naval exercise off Iran’s coast. Israel has turned itself into an international pariah, with virtually unanimous condemnation by countries outside of the collective West for its appalling actions, and even condemnation by some countries within the core Western camp.[21] The Israeli state, its leaders, and soldiers (a distinction without a difference in Israel) are now increasingly fearful of going to any country besides the US, as in virtually all other countries there is serious risk of indictment and imprisonment for war crimes.[22] Israel’s inability to pacify the miniscule Gaza Strip, despite more than a year of genocidal counterinsurgency, proves to be a continuous embarrassing failure for the vaunted IDF with thousands of their Eisatzgruppen men being killed or maimed.[23] The ceasefire deal in Gaza has vindicated Hamas’s pledges, that Israeli prisoners of war and detainees would only return in exchange for a deal, and aid has entered the area in far larger amounts than before with Israeli troops having been forced to withdraw from the strip. Arab countries have also refused to support the Israeli plan to ethnically cleanse Gaza and have voiced support for Gazans to remain and for a reconstruction plan for the area. The Israeli economy faces serious problems from the war and genocide, with Israel’s own leading economists assessing the country as being in a “spiral of collapse”. The country has undergone severe brain drain as many Jews have chosen to leave the country, while many of the remained skilled workers have been called up for military service. The country’s credit rating is near junk bond levels as debt has skyrocketed from military expenditure and subsidies for Israeli settlers displaced by fighting. The genocide and resulting international condemnation and legal jeopardy has scared off investment and business, in addition to the dangers from the war itself.[24] Israeli internal political crisis also is returning as a period of calm returns discussion of shelved judicial overhauls and implementation of Haredi conscription. Israeli acquisition of more territory only increases the numbers of Arabs it has to deal with, something that has already generated such enormous problems for them. All of this has led to serious questions about the long term sustainability of the Zionist project, including among Israelis themselves, with many seeking to flee abroad. For the US this conflict has also generated serious problems. Further Arab-Israeli normalization along the lines of the Abraham Accords is also dead, especially the crown jewel Saudi Arabia, which has recently been clearly enunciating that no normalization will be concluded without a Palestinian state, as Saudi Arabia is unwilling to tie itself to the deeply unpopular and revolting Zionist project and risk a war. Saudi Arabia has only deepened its China-backed rapprochement with Iran as the country desperately signals its desire to remain uninvolved in a disastrous potential US-Iran war, and is also deepening technological cooperation with China. With a Saudi-Iran rapproachment continuing, the fundamental logic behind any further advancement of the Abraham Accords for the Arab side has mostly collapsed, since the whole idea was to bash Iran in the first place. Saudi Arabia has made it very clear that it has no interest in moving forward with the Abraham accords, and has now made serious Palestine related concessions it knows Israel will never grant a condition for proceeding. Qatar, another western ally, has recently demand that Israel de-nuclearize and join the Non-Proliferation Treaty as a non-nuclear power. The anti-western and China friendly Russia has already cultivated a strengthening relationship with Saudi over shared oil market goals. Multiple Arab govts have worked to join the non-US aligned BRICS forum and deepen economic integration with China, using Chinese AI like Deepseek or buying Chinese fighter aircraft.[25] Unfortunately for Washington, the dominance of Chinese oil import contracts in West Asia and China’s enormous and advanced production capacities means that getting them to cut relations with China is likely to be a fool’s errand. Furthermore, the triumph of the Turkish-Israeli effort against Syria now means that these two US satellites might go to war with each other over regional influence, as Israel is already saber rattling about, as it already is attacking Turkey’s new puppets in Damascus.[26] The new Syrian govts adherence to neoliberal economics and the continued US sanctions is likely to somehow worsen economic conditions in the country which were already abysmal, and when combined with continued Israeli attacks that go unanswered, is likely to destabilize the new regime. The continued sanctions towards the new Syrian govt and refusal by Washington to countenance anything but absolute submission to Israel has also driven Syria towards reaching some kind of modus vivendi with the non-Western aligned countries, especially Russia. US backing for the mass murder of hundreds of thousands of innocent people by Israel has destroyed the US’s global reputation, with major shifts in public opinion against the US and in some cases towards China, who notably did not sully its hands with Palestinian blood. US soft power has thus evaporated, US values are the values of mass rape, bombing children, and genocide.[27] The US is also actively destroying the institutions and international law it itself created to uphold US hegemony and the so-called “rules-based order” for being insufficiently pro-Israel. The ICC and World Court is under direct attack from the US for investigating Israel for genocide, despite the fact that the US was previously singing their praises for acting against the Russia for the Ukraine War.[28] So the question now is, does the US decide that enough is enough?Does it go through with redoing Clean Break and attack Iran to lock down the Middle East for itself and deny it to China, or does it content itself with other approaches or priorities. No matter what, this struggle between the forces of light and liberation and the forces of darkness and despotism is not over yet. Only time will tell what the ultimate outcome will be though.
[1] “Al-Aqsa Flood: A Historic Operation Protecting the Region and the World from Grave Danger.” Khamenei.ir, June 6, 2024. https://english.khamenei.ir/news/10841/Al-Aqsa-Flood-A-historic-operation-protecting-the-region-and.
[2] “Iran and Saudi Arabia Hold Joint Naval Exercise in Sea of Oman .” Times of Israel, October 24, 2024. https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-and-saudi-arabia-hold-joint-naval-exercise-in-sea-of-oman/.
Ali-Khan, Veena. “Why Saudi Arabia Is Staying on the Sidelines in the Red Sea Conflict.” Foreign Policy, January 16, 2024. https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/16/saudi-arabia-red-sea-conflict-houthis-us-strike.
[3] Barnard, Corinna. “Israel, Blackmail & the Presidents.” Consortium News, November 5, 2024. https://consortiumnews.com/2024/11/05/israel-blackmail-the-presidents/.
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[4] “State of Palestine.” International Criminal Court. https://www.icc-cpi.int/palestine.
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[6] Goodwin, Allegra, and Gianluca Mezzofiore. “Israeli Attack That Killed Aid Workers Consistent with Multiple Precision Strikes, Analysis Shows.” CNN, April 3, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/03/middleeast/world-central-kitchen-strike-analysis-intl/index.html.
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[7] Ip, Cyril. “Why China’s Words at Top UN Court Could Signal Stronger Support for Palestinians.” South China Morning Post, March 22, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3256382/why-chinas-words-top-un-court-could-signal-stronger-support-palestinian-cause.
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McCarthy, Simone, Isaac Yee, and Abeer Salman. “Hamas and Fatah Sign Agreement in Beijing ‘ending’ Their Division, China Says.” CNN, July 25, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/23/china/hamas-fatah-palestinian-factions-beijing-intl-hnk/index.html.
[8] Berman, Zachary. “China Arming Houthi Rebels in Yemen in Exchange for Unimpeded Red Sea Passage.” FDD, January 2, 2025. https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/01/02/china-arming-houthi-rebels-in-yemen-in-exchange-for-unimpeded-red-sea-passage/.
[9] Chehayeb, Kareem. “Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah Was Killed Last Year inside the War Operations Room, Aide Says.” Chicago Tribune, January 5, 2025. https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/05/hezbollah-leader-killed-last-year/.
Qiblawi, Tamara. “US-Backed Army Chief Elected Lebanon’s President, Ending Years-Long Stalemate.” CNN, January 9, 2025. https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/middleeast/joseph-aoun-elected-lebanon-president-intl/index.html.
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[10] Rashid, Toufiq. “Iran in Trouble after the Fall of Assad?” Outlook India, January 7, 2025. https://www.outlookindia.com/international/iran-in-trouble-after-the-fall-of-assad.
[11] Malekafzali, Seamus. “Unbelievable. Israel Destroyed Much of the Syrian Military’s Capabilities...” Twitter, December 27, 2024. https://x.com/Seamus_Malek/status/1872624208309829854.
[12] Tyab, Imtiaz. “Israeli Strikes Destroy Syria’s Weapons of War as Ousted Assad Laments Country’s Fall into ‘Hands of Terrorism.’” CBS News, December 16, 2024. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-syria-war-airstrikes-bashar-assad-first-statement-since-ouster/.
[13] “Turkey, Syria Tandem Could Mean Piped Qatari Gas for Europe and a Supercharged Middle East Clean Energy Transition.” bne IntelliNews, December 21, 2024. https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-syria-tandem-could-mean-piped-qatari-gas-for-europe-and-a-supercharged-middle-east-clean-energy-transition-359574/?source=eu-today.
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Samman, Nouran al-. “Factors Indicating a Harsh Ramadan for Syrians.” Enab Baladi, February 26, 2025. https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2025/02/factors-indicating-a-harsh-ramadan-for-syrians/.
[14] “It Is Reported That the Syrian Army Has Recently Granted Senior Military Ranks to a Number of Foreign Terrorist Fighters...” Twitter, January 8, 2025. https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1877141924114739446.
[15] Rasgon, Adam. “U.S. Strikes Militant Group in Yemen That Has Kept up Attacks on Ships.” The New York Times, December 31, 2024. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/world/middleeast/houthis-israel-missile-attack.html.
[16] Rashid, Toufiq. “Iran in Trouble after the Fall of Assad?” Outlook India, January 7, 2025. https://www.outlookindia.com/international/iran-in-trouble-after-the-fall-of-assad.
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[17] Ziwen, Zhao. “Mideast and Trump Front of Mind as China, Iran Foreign Ministers Meet.” South China Morning Post, December 28, 2024. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3292592/mideast-and-trump-front-mind-china-iran-foreign-ministers-meet-beijing.
Isachenkov, Vladimir. “Russia and Iran Sign a Partnership Treaty to Deepen Their Ties in the Face of Western Sanctions.” AP News, January 17, 2025. https://apnews.com/article/russia-putin-iran-pezeshkian-treaty-partnership-71a20990373851741d1fe76a81699036.
“IRGC Launches Massive Military Drills in Western Iran amid Tensions with U.S. and Israel.” The Times of India, January 4, 2025. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/videos/international/irgc-launches-massive-military-drills-in-western-iran-amid-tensions-with-u-s-and-israel/videoshow/116949580.cms.
[18] Ravid, Barak. “Trump Faces Iran Nuclear Crisis in 2025.” Axios, January 6, 2025. https://www.axios.com/2025/01/06/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.
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[19] MacGregor, Douglas. “Iran: America’s Next War of Choice.” The American Conservative, December 16, 2024. https://www.theamericanconservative.com/iran-americas-next-war-of-choice/.
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[20] Ravid, Barak. “Trump Faces Iran Nuclear Crisis in 2025.” Axios, January 6, 2025. https://www.axios.com/2025/01/06/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.
[21] Mishra, Vibhu. “UN General Assembly Demands Israel End ‘unlawful Presence’ in Occupied Palestinian Territory.” United Nations, September 18, 2024. https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/09/1154496.
[22] “State of Palestine.” International Criminal Court. https://www.icc-cpi.int/palestine.
Tameem. “The Fact That Israel Internally Publishes a Guide to Escape War Crimes Prosecution Is Amusing Enough.” Twitter, January 5, 2025. https://x.com/tameeolivefern/status/1875986859580641479?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg.
[23] Bob, Yonah Jeremy. “Hamas Forces Are Making a Substantial Comeback in the Gaza Strip.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, January 1, 2025. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-835754.
[24] Hever, Shir. “The End of Israel’s Economy.” Mondoweiss, July 23, 2024. https://mondoweiss.net/2024/07/the-end-of-israels-economy/.
Barghouti, Omar. “To Stop Trump’s Gaza Plans, Palestinians Need Solidarity and Support.” The Guardian, February 10, 2025. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/10/stop-trump-gaza-plan-solidarity-support.
[25] Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. “#Statement | The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Appreciates the Condemnation, Disapproval and Total Rejection...” Twitter, February 8, 2025. https://x.com/ksamofaen/status/1888451414717788364?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg.
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Sakr, Taha. “Chinese J-10CE Jets Arrive in Egypt, Marking Shift in Air Superiority Strategy.” Dailynewsegypt, February 13, 2025. https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2025/02/13/chinese-j-10ce-jets-arrive-in-egypt-marking-shift-in-air-superiority-strategy/.
[26] Etzion, Udi. “Israel Must Prepare for Potential War with Turkey, Nagel Committee Warns.” The Jerusalem Post | JPost.com, January 6, 2025. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836362.
[27] Hejmans, Phillip. “China Topples US as SE Asia’s Favored Partner, Survey Shows.” Bloomberg.com, April 2, 2024. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-02/china-topples-us-as-se-asia-s-favored-partner-survey-shows.
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[28] Poonia, Gitanjali. “Speaker Johnson Says House Will Vote to Impose Sanctions on International Criminal Court to Protect Israel and U.S. Interests.” Yahoo! News, January 8, 2025. https://www.yahoo.com/news/speaker-johnson-says-house-vote-212221329.html?guccounter=1.
Thank you for this excellent summary of the situation in west asia