War on China News Update June 15-22 2025
Week In Review
The Iran War has continued to escalate considerably in the past few days. Iranian strikes on Israel continue with greater and greater success, as Israeli-US air defenses begin to suffer operational deficiencies and the prospect of near term missile shortages. Iranian attacks have reportedly hit several notable sites in Israel ranging from corporate facilities to military and intelligence offices. In the face of the escalating Iranian successes Israel has put all reporting on the attacks under strict military censorship in a desperate bid to hide the worsening situation from their public and the world. Israeli attacks also continue against Iran, but their successes have been a far cry from the initial surprise attack results. Presidents Xi and Putin held a telephone call earlier this week to discuss their positions on the crisis as the leading non Western powers. Both countries have condemned Israeli attacks and called for peace, floating themselves as mediators.
With the situation worsening for Israel’s war of choice, the US decided to become directly involved with an attack on three of Iran’s nuclear plants. At this juncture it is unclear how much if any meaningful damage was done to the facilities. Both Russia and China have publicly condemned US aggression against Iran, and Iran’s FM has hastily traveled to Moscow for consultations. With direct US attacks on Iran now a reality, the situation is likely to drastically worsen in the coming days and weeks. Trump already reportedly expanded the scope of his attack on Iran at Israeli request, not exactly a good indicator for the prospects of the US successfully “managing” the escalation of the war. Despite initial claims of “limited” objectives Trump and co quickly began floating years long efforts and regime change. Iran’s parliament has voted to recommend that Iran’s Supreme National Security Council close of the Strait of Hormuz, and with it much of the world’s oil supply, though the council has not made that decision yet. China’s alternative energy and non-Middle East oil purchases along with stockpiles and state planning will help insulate it from such global impacts. The US’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels and total connection to the vagaries of the international market make it very vulnerable to consumer pain from such a blockade.
The full breadth of War on China’s in depth Middle East coverage can be found here:
https://x.com/bonzerbarry/status/1935747560238444745
https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1935968196877779018?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1936573183634645387?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1936753347572416765?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1936744486182547678?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://x.com/FaytuksNetwork/status/1936804322278580254
https://x.com/philippilk/status/1936782373284089937
The trade war continues to go rather poorly for the US. Trump’s hopes for a series of quick deals and easy victories were further dashed at the G7 meeting in Canada, where no country agreed to any new agreements with the US. In particular, Trump officials had high hopes that India and Japan would come to an agreement soon, neither of which agreed. Meanwhile, China has continued to us the rare earths question to squeeze the US. China agreed to some limited 6 month rare earth export approvals as part of London trade talks, but still refused to provide any to US MIC firms, which is eminently reasonable given US plans for military aggression against China. US chip restrictions may have relaxed somewhat though, as Nvidia joined a Chinese expo fair recently. The agreement reached at London remains relatively unclear, as neither side has released an official document and the Chinese side has not given presidential approval for it.
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06/9510f16b39e7-update3-japan-us-still-far-from-tariff-deal-after-ishiba-trump-summit.html
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/india/pm-modi-to-trump-no-talks-on-india-us-trade-deal-during-hostilities-with-pakistan-13138255.html
https://x.com/globaltimesnews/status/1934810210352419219?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/trump-pledge-of-quick-china-magnet-flows-has-yet-to-materialize?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=vuYGislZ
The other US containment efforts against China are currently having a bit of a mixed result. At the G7, Western officials were only unified by yet another slanderous statement against China amidst squabbling over trade, the Iran war, Ukraine, and other issues. In particular, EU commission president Ursala von der Leyen screeched angrily about China and stated that Trump was right to go after them, despite Beijing stretching out its hand in friendship. The EU has also recently banned Chinese firms from competing for medical device contracts in a bid to protect their uneconomical home firms. Japan on the other hand has been somewhat less enthused. Japan has canceled a major bilateral defense and foreign policy ministerial meeting with the US over US demands that it spend even more on military matters. On the other side, Chinese Vice Premier Deng Xuexiang traveled to Russia to meet with President Putin as part of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum where they expressed a continued commitment to work together to overcome common obstacles, and Putin stated that he looked forward to attending the upcoming SCO summit in Tianjin.
https://x.com/pdchina/status/1935493584192684431?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-china-ursula-von-der-leyen
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-bars-chinese-firms-most-medical-device-tenders-2025-06-20/
https://www.ft.com/content/53f646e7-b4e7-4bf4-8d5d-7142b4460080?shareType=nongift
https://english.cctv.com/2025/06/22/ARTIwgvI97uVH5CnD5KxsX7G250622.shtml
NATO officials have approved demands for a massive new war spending hike at their latest summit. NATO secretary general Mark Rutte called upon members of the bloc to spend an unprecedented 5% of GDP on war. These new spending priorities will be forced upon the European countries amidst already existing economic problems and budget shortfalls, which will almost certainly lead to cuts to public services. NATO officials also fully backed the US war of aggression against Iran. Notably, several Western satellite states in Asia chose to skip the conference despite initial plans to attend after the US attack on Iran.
https://news.sky.com/story/uk-and-nato-allies-agree-to-boost-spending-on-defence-and-related-areas-to-5-of-gdp-by-2035-13387196
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1937146789150458263
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Japan-PM-Ishiba-decides-to-skip-NATO-summit-amid-Mideast-tensions
The international currency situation continues to evolve in negative ways for the US. US importers have been facing increasing demands from their foreign suppliers to settle transactions currencies other than the USD, driven by a drop in the USD’s value and political and economic instability in the US. China meanwhile has been working steadily at increasing internationalization of the RMB and reform of the international currency system. China has announced new agreements of regional financial institutions joining China’s SWIFT alternative, the Cross Border Interbank Payment System, as well as a new international operations center to promote international usage of the digital RMB. Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng gave further impetus to such efforts in speech in Shanghai, where he called for a multipolar currency system to end dollar dominance, and noted calls for increased use of IMF Special Drawing Rights as an international currency in a manner similar to Keynes’ call for an international “Bancor” currency at Bretton Woods.
https://x.com/philippilk/status/1934662691982876797?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://x.com/pdchina/status/1935215907611230525?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg
https://www.ft.com/content/ed04b26c-657d-4653-859d-c5a560c6b3e9
President Xi visited Astana this week for a China-Central Asia Summit. China and the other 5 attending countries signed the Treaty of Permanent Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation, enshrining the China-Central Asia friendship in law. In addition to the joint meetings held at the summit, China also held one on one bilateral meetings with all attendees. China has placed great emphasis on economic and diplomatic relations with the Central Asian republics in recent years, investing substantially and heavily promoting trade.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202506/1336391.shtml
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2025-06-18/China-Central-Asia-sign-landmark-treaty-vow-to-boost-cooperation-1Ei1tgKFlXa/p.html
China continues to welcome new state visits from foreign officials. New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon visited Beijing this week. Luxon sought to promote exports to China as well as bring Chinese visitors to New Zealand, and generally deepen economic cooperation. Singapore’s PM Lawrence Wong is also visiting China. The two countries will seek to further strengthen bilateral ties, and also will likely discuss the trade response to the US given ASEAN and China’s similar stances.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202506/1336366.shtml
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202506/1336702.shtml
China’s oil demand will peak earlier than expected. Reports indicate that China’s previously growing oil demand will peak in the coming years and decrease going forward, amidst vast increases in renewable energy and electrification of many systems. These changes will reduce China’s pollution level, as well as reduce the potential damages from oil shortages in a crisis like say a war in the Middle East. Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin confirmed these trends in a speech before the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, stating that China was seeking to become a net energy exporter rather than importer, shifting away from fossil fuels where possible and producing synthetic domestic sources through coal processing and the like.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-17/china-s-oil-demand-will-peak-earlier-than-expected-iea-says?
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/russias-sechin-says-china-is-moving-towards-exporting-energy-2025-06-21/
FBI Director Kash Patel has once again made more totally unsubstantiated allegations against China, this time accusing China of interfering in US elections. These allegations, a mirror of the similarly fraudulent Russiagate allegations, are also intended to further worsen relations and propagandize against US state enemies.
https://x.com/fbidirectorkash/status/1934797478609477704?t=XcTQEAmVq56cJu9IKvdPKg\